Demystifying Admissions: Insights from a Former Admissions Officer about the Knowns and Unknowns Behind the College Process
We’ve all heard the stories– and maybe even seen the headlines. College admissions can feel like a high-stakes game of poker: part strategy, part luck, and often cloaked in mystery. Even in the best of circumstances, it can seem like the cards are stacked against you.
Questions like “How can I stand out?” and “What do colleges really want?” are common– and for good reason. Applying to college is often seen as a rite of passage, one of the first significant milestones in a young adult’s life. It carries lasting implications for the chapters that follow.
To navigate this complex process, it’s crucial to equip students and families with the correct information and tools to help them make informed decisions in unfamiliar territory. As David Hawkins, Chief Policy and Education Officer at NACAC, aptly puts it, learning the ins and outs of college admissions is like “learning a new language.” Admissions is both an art and a science, constantly evolving with each passing year.
As a former admissions officer, my goal was always to empower students to focus on what they could control and build resilience for the parts they couldn’t. I tried to humanize the process, offer transparency, and shed light on what often feels like a black box.
One helpful framework for making sense of this uncertainty is the Known-Unknown Matrix. Originally developed for decision-making in fields like project management, education, and foreign policy, it applies surprisingly well to college admissions. The matrix helps bridge the knowledge gap between students and admissions officers by categorizing what we know and don’t know about the process.
Here’s a breakdown of the matrix’s four quadrants, adapted from The Uncertainty Project:
Known Knowns: Facts or variables we understand clearly. These provide a solid foundation for decision-making.
Known Unknowns: Factors we’re aware of but don’t fully grasp. These are gaps we can work to fill.
Unknown Knowns: Insights we unknowingly possess– often overlooked or buried.
Unknown Unknowns: Elements we can’t foresee or anticipate, posing the greatest uncertainty and risk.
And here’s a breakdown of our take on the matrix, adapted for college admissions:
The more aware we become of these dimensions, the better prepared we are—even when outcomes remain uncertain. Let’s explore each quadrant and its relevance to the college application process.
#1 Your Story: The Known-Unknown
“I am the subject I know best. I paint my own reality.” — Frida Kahlo
You are the expert on your own story. This makes it a Known-Unknown: it’s known to you but unknown to the admissions committee (that is, until you share it). The goal of your application is to craft an authentic, compelling narrative that reflects who you are.
It’s not just a cliché when admissions officers talk about a “holistic review process.” We’re looking at the whole picture. Your personal story plays an increasingly important role in your admissions decision. It will probably come as no surprise that your essay, or your personal statement, is the heart of that story. It’s your opportunity to make yourself known.
Take time to reflect, draft, and revise. An impactful essay can elevate your entire application and offer admissions officers the context they need to understand your unique value.
#2 Your Application: The Known-Known
Your application itself– your grades, courses, extracurriculars, and essays—is the Known-Known. It’s visible and accessible to both you and the college. It’s also the primary tool used to evaluate your potential fit.
Admissions committees rely on both qualitative and quantitative data. On the qualitative side, we assess your voice, tone, and values, often drawn from your essays and extracurriculars. On the quantitative side, we consider the “hard” data, primarily your transcript.
Contrary to popular belief, admissions officers aren’t looking for perfection. We’re looking for rigor, growth, and intellectual curiosity. Have you challenged yourself academically? Have you taken advantage of the opportunities available to you? These are the questions that matter most.
In the test-optional era, your transcript is the most consistent and critical piece of your application. So stay engaged in your classes, explore what excites you, and invest in your education. It matters.
#3 What Will Happen- The Unknown-Unknown
Admit. Waitlist. Deny. This is the outcome nobody can predict—not even the admissions office—until decisions are finalized. It’s the ultimate Unknown-Unknown.
Here’s the hard truth: admissions is not a perfect science. Sometimes, it’s not even up to the regional representative assigned to your case. Decisions are shaped by shifting institutional priorities, demographic goals, departmental capacities, and the broader cultural or political landscape.
That doesn’t make the process arbitrary, but it does mean that some aspects are beyond your control. Recognizing that can help you manage expectations and protect your self-worth from being defined by a single outcome.
#4 How it Works- The Unknown-Known
Understanding the inner workings of the admissions process helps students better navigate the uncertainty of outcomes. This is the Unknown-Known—information that’s well-understood by colleges but often unfamiliar to students.
Each institution designs its own review process and sets its own priorities. Rubrics vary. Most schools weigh GPA heavily; but others prioritize essays, activites, supplements or demonstrated interest to varying degrees. The more you learn about how colleges evaluate applications, the more empowered you’ll be. The #1 rule on this front? It never hurts to ask. That’s what admissions offices are there for. To be a resource and a guide to you each step of the way.
Understanding “how it works” won’t give you control over the decision, but it will provide you with insight. And insight leads to clarity, confidence, and better decision-making—both during the application process and beyond.
Conclusion
In the end, college admissions is not about cracking a secret code— it’s about making thoughtful, informed choices in the face of uncertainty. By understanding what’s known, acknowledging what’s unknown, and focusing on what you can control, you can approach this process with greater intention and resilience. Remember, the undergraduate admissions process is a complex, imperfect system influenced by many moving parts. Admissions decisions may be unpredictable, but your voice, your story, and your effort are entirely your own. By demystifying the process and focusing on what’s within reach, you empower yourself to move forward, not just toward a college, but toward a future that reflects your unique path, potential, and purpose.
